* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942015 08/01/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 27 30 33 38 43 45 46 46 46 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 27 30 33 38 43 45 46 46 46 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 26 28 29 31 36 41 46 49 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 7 9 9 8 13 11 8 4 9 13 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 9 10 10 11 12 5 0 2 3 1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 121 128 132 137 148 119 101 86 139 203 219 252 247 SST (C) 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.4 26.7 26.8 26.5 26.1 26.0 26.1 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 115 115 114 114 114 116 119 120 118 114 112 113 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 111 109 108 107 110 112 113 112 107 104 104 105 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -54.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 700-500 MB RH 64 64 62 61 60 55 54 51 51 50 54 52 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 26 18 18 15 24 37 47 53 55 49 41 16 11 200 MB DIV 14 28 27 38 67 62 18 -47 -24 -26 -1 -3 -9 700-850 TADV -8 -8 -6 -2 2 7 3 0 3 6 6 4 4 LAND (KM) 1894 1943 1868 1802 1739 1584 1448 1352 1335 1373 1410 1423 1427 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.3 13.4 12.9 12.4 12.3 13.1 14.3 15.5 16.2 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 34.9 35.9 36.9 37.7 38.5 39.9 41.1 42.2 43.3 44.3 45.3 46.2 47.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 7 7 6 6 7 8 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 15 10 2 1 2 6 5 5 3 1 4 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 23. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 13. 18. 20. 21. 21. 21. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942015 INVEST 08/01/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942015 INVEST 08/01/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)