* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP092015 08/01/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 92 93 92 89 83 78 71 66 61 56 51 49 V (KT) LAND 90 92 93 92 89 83 78 71 66 61 56 51 49 V (KT) LGE mod 90 93 93 89 85 76 71 68 66 64 61 58 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 11 13 9 7 7 9 10 15 16 15 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 10 11 7 9 5 5 3 0 0 2 2 0 SHEAR DIR 302 278 278 287 295 291 283 285 280 297 285 279 260 SST (C) 29.0 28.6 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.3 27.0 26.9 27.1 27.1 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 157 153 149 146 145 141 137 136 133 132 134 133 134 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -51.5 -51.9 -51.5 -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 7 700-500 MB RH 67 67 69 69 70 70 70 67 65 63 58 58 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 25 24 23 23 24 22 22 23 22 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR 4 6 1 1 3 7 29 33 41 44 52 44 45 200 MB DIV 85 50 22 26 29 20 22 7 30 29 17 -3 7 700-850 TADV 10 14 15 13 10 4 8 9 9 11 12 9 8 LAND (KM) 2186 2005 1826 1689 1552 1314 1106 948 794 626 408 253 127 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.3 13.6 14.0 14.4 15.1 15.8 16.5 17.4 18.2 18.7 19.2 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 135.5 137.2 138.8 140.0 141.2 143.3 145.1 146.4 147.6 149.0 151.0 152.4 153.6 STM SPEED (KT) 18 16 14 12 12 10 8 7 7 9 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 29 33 19 17 18 12 10 10 13 17 18 17 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 719 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -7. -12. -16. -20. -23. -26. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. 0. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 2. -1. -7. -12. -19. -24. -29. -34. -39. -41. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/01/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/01/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##