* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942015 08/01/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 27 30 35 41 46 50 52 52 52 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 27 30 35 41 46 50 52 52 52 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 27 29 33 40 47 53 56 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 10 11 9 7 10 11 6 4 12 12 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 10 0 0 4 4 -3 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 117 115 137 159 166 117 55 76 117 163 219 252 252 SST (C) 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.5 26.8 26.7 26.4 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 114 114 114 113 114 117 120 120 117 114 113 114 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 110 110 108 106 107 111 114 114 111 107 105 105 104 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.5 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 700-500 MB RH 63 60 59 59 57 53 53 49 51 53 54 50 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 20 14 14 16 22 43 46 51 52 43 35 13 8 200 MB DIV 14 7 23 50 70 50 -2 -39 -24 -3 14 -2 3 700-850 TADV -9 -7 -4 -1 1 3 -3 0 3 4 4 1 2 LAND (KM) 1942 1875 1811 1747 1684 1547 1402 1337 1321 1337 1347 1347 1331 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.0 13.3 13.2 13.1 12.6 12.1 12.5 13.4 14.6 15.4 16.0 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 35.8 36.7 37.6 38.3 38.9 40.1 41.4 42.6 43.9 45.2 46.2 47.3 48.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 6 6 7 6 7 8 8 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 13 4 1 2 5 7 5 4 2 8 6 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 23. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 25. 27. 27. 27. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942015 INVEST 08/01/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942015 INVEST 08/01/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942015 INVEST 08/01/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED