* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP092015 08/01/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 89 87 85 83 77 73 67 60 56 50 44 40 V (KT) LAND 90 89 87 85 83 77 73 67 60 56 50 44 40 V (KT) LGE mod 90 88 85 80 75 67 62 59 57 56 54 50 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 13 9 6 10 11 12 11 14 19 28 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 12 8 8 8 3 1 0 0 1 4 5 5 SHEAR DIR 293 289 297 298 280 292 290 313 270 280 268 266 258 SST (C) 28.6 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.1 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 153 149 147 145 144 139 137 135 134 133 133 133 133 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -52.1 -51.4 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -51.9 -52.6 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 66 69 70 72 72 72 73 69 69 66 61 60 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 23 22 22 22 23 22 20 21 21 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -6 -8 0 5 9 35 34 45 54 48 34 30 200 MB DIV 45 22 25 28 21 39 14 22 14 16 22 21 28 700-850 TADV 18 14 11 10 5 4 7 8 9 10 8 9 9 LAND (KM) 2038 1876 1714 1589 1464 1227 1053 900 763 580 366 236 153 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.7 14.1 14.4 14.6 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.4 18.4 19.6 20.3 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 136.8 138.3 139.7 140.9 142.0 144.0 145.5 146.8 147.9 149.4 151.3 152.7 153.9 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 13 11 11 9 7 7 7 10 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 34 22 16 17 15 11 9 11 15 17 15 13 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -8. -13. -17. -21. -24. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 0. -2. -4. -3. -3. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -7. -13. -17. -23. -30. -34. -40. -46. -50. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/01/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/01/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##