* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP092015 08/01/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 90 89 87 83 80 72 67 62 55 47 40 35 V (KT) LAND 90 90 89 87 83 80 72 67 62 55 47 40 35 V (KT) LGE mod 90 88 85 80 76 70 66 62 60 56 52 48 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 6 10 9 9 10 10 10 18 27 31 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 13 11 7 7 10 7 1 4 2 2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 298 296 318 315 328 339 298 305 273 267 268 261 260 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.1 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 147 146 143 139 137 136 134 133 134 134 135 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -51.2 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 -52.5 -52.8 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 64 67 68 67 67 67 67 64 62 59 57 55 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 22 21 20 22 20 20 19 19 18 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -3 8 9 1 21 29 39 41 47 37 29 20 200 MB DIV 29 40 31 19 15 26 12 26 17 20 18 13 24 700-850 TADV 9 9 7 7 7 8 10 5 6 8 4 7 2 LAND (KM) 1874 1732 1590 1468 1347 1148 999 841 660 478 304 156 75 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.6 15.3 16.0 16.7 17.5 18.4 19.3 20.0 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 138.4 139.7 141.0 142.1 143.2 144.9 146.1 147.4 148.9 150.4 151.9 153.4 154.9 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 11 10 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 18 13 14 16 17 14 10 9 16 16 17 20 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 708 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -8. -13. -17. -21. -24. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 0. -3. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -3. -7. -10. -18. -23. -28. -35. -43. -50. -55. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/01/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/01/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##