* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP092015 08/01/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 89 86 82 79 70 61 53 47 40 32 27 22 V (KT) LAND 90 89 86 82 79 70 61 53 47 40 32 27 22 V (KT) LGE mod 90 87 83 78 73 64 56 51 46 43 41 39 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 14 16 11 17 17 17 17 15 25 26 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 13 8 5 8 4 1 0 -2 0 1 4 0 SHEAR DIR 295 294 304 312 314 304 298 286 285 256 263 253 257 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 146 144 142 137 135 134 133 133 135 135 134 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.2 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -52.4 -52.4 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 67 69 68 69 71 70 70 68 67 64 62 59 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 21 20 20 20 19 19 17 16 14 13 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -2 0 -2 4 17 21 31 30 39 27 25 -3 200 MB DIV 45 34 5 12 27 -1 10 9 10 33 37 47 5 700-850 TADV 17 13 11 7 6 4 3 1 2 2 0 4 -1 LAND (KM) 1752 1632 1512 1403 1294 1106 960 807 649 472 293 144 53 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.0 14.2 14.6 14.9 15.8 16.7 17.3 17.8 18.6 19.6 20.4 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 139.5 140.6 141.7 142.7 143.6 145.1 146.2 147.5 148.9 150.4 152.0 153.8 155.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 9 8 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 13 13 16 17 17 11 8 9 15 14 17 18 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -9. -14. -18. -22. -25. -27. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -5. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -12. -14. -15. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -8. -11. -20. -29. -37. -43. -50. -58. -63. -68. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/01/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/01/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##