* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP092015 08/02/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 88 86 81 78 69 60 53 46 42 36 29 22 V (KT) LAND 90 88 86 81 78 69 60 53 46 42 36 29 22 V (KT) LGE mod 90 87 83 78 73 64 56 49 45 44 42 39 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 12 13 15 12 15 14 16 15 20 18 29 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 8 6 4 9 5 2 -2 0 0 3 3 0 SHEAR DIR 276 287 297 308 302 297 290 288 258 257 244 249 248 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.3 27.2 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 143 141 140 136 135 133 133 134 134 134 135 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 -51.9 -51.7 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -53.0 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 67 68 68 67 67 66 68 66 63 63 61 60 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 21 19 20 19 18 16 14 15 14 12 9 850 MB ENV VOR 4 5 0 7 10 21 28 25 36 29 17 -4 -26 200 MB DIV 35 7 15 30 31 16 27 7 18 33 52 26 2 700-850 TADV 12 12 9 6 7 6 3 0 4 2 5 4 4 LAND (KM) 1648 1522 1396 1289 1183 1010 862 692 495 337 203 106 24 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.2 14.6 15.0 15.4 16.2 16.9 17.7 18.5 19.2 19.9 20.6 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 140.5 141.6 142.7 143.6 144.5 145.9 147.1 148.5 150.2 151.6 152.9 154.4 156.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 9 7 7 9 8 7 7 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 13 16 17 17 14 9 8 14 15 16 18 15 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -10. -14. -19. -22. -25. -28. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -4. -4. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -10. -11. -14. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -9. -12. -21. -30. -37. -44. -48. -54. -61. -68. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/02/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/02/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##