* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP092015 08/02/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 89 87 82 78 71 61 56 50 43 35 29 23 V (KT) LAND 90 89 87 82 78 71 61 56 50 43 36 31 25 V (KT) LGE mod 90 88 84 78 73 63 56 52 48 45 38 39 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 9 10 13 13 12 18 8 18 18 30 32 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 12 10 9 8 5 0 8 3 5 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 306 313 300 295 294 285 299 273 258 248 256 256 258 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.3 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 146 143 141 139 138 136 135 134 135 136 135 137 138 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.6 -51.3 -51.5 -51.9 -51.5 -51.9 -51.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 66 68 67 69 69 67 64 61 60 57 53 50 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 21 20 20 20 18 17 17 15 14 13 10 850 MB ENV VOR -3 3 6 16 18 32 37 44 38 39 15 7 -8 200 MB DIV 14 30 19 16 -1 12 17 20 28 41 24 16 -15 700-850 TADV 9 8 10 8 9 8 5 6 5 7 9 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1390 1286 1182 1088 994 811 600 399 220 45 0 39 98 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.7 15.0 15.4 15.7 16.5 17.3 18.1 18.9 19.8 20.9 21.9 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 142.9 143.8 144.7 145.5 146.3 147.8 149.6 151.3 152.8 154.5 156.5 158.5 160.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 14 13 13 10 9 14 20 16 19 18 3 11 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 701 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -10. -15. -19. -23. -25. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -8. -12. -19. -29. -34. -40. -47. -55. -61. -67. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/02/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/02/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##