* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922015 08/02/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 24 28 35 44 51 57 60 61 61 62 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 24 28 35 44 51 57 60 61 61 62 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 22 24 29 35 43 52 60 68 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 5 3 3 2 5 5 8 11 12 10 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -3 -1 0 0 0 -4 -4 -2 -2 -6 -7 SHEAR DIR 235 259 296 344 3 357 346 10 352 7 20 10 360 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.2 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.0 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 158 158 157 154 155 155 155 156 157 155 154 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 70 69 68 69 70 70 71 74 76 78 75 71 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 5 6 6 5 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 0 1 3 8 12 13 11 17 31 28 26 12 200 MB DIV 51 44 28 26 33 38 32 33 48 49 40 56 43 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -2 -1 0 -2 0 -1 -1 0 -3 -6 LAND (KM) 1530 1577 1611 1657 1710 1828 1951 2103 2279 2454 2409 2176 1941 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.1 10.3 10.5 10.7 11.2 11.6 11.9 11.9 11.9 11.9 12.0 12.0 LONG(DEG W) 115.3 116.4 117.5 118.7 119.8 122.1 124.5 126.9 129.1 131.3 133.7 136.0 138.4 STM SPEED (KT) 14 11 11 11 12 11 12 11 11 11 12 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 52 48 52 51 43 30 22 32 31 29 24 31 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 733 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 30. 35. 38. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 4. 8. 15. 24. 31. 37. 40. 41. 41. 42. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922015 INVEST 08/02/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 49.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922015 INVEST 08/02/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##