* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952015 08/03/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 32 34 35 37 36 41 42 44 45 44 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 26 29 31 31 35 36 39 39 38 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 26 26 30 30 32 35 40 46 52 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 23 24 24 21 22 6 10 11 12 12 16 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 2 0 -5 -3 -2 -1 -1 -1 -4 -4 -3 -6 SHEAR DIR 329 335 331 332 332 348 306 311 235 283 294 323 335 SST (C) 29.1 28.8 28.4 27.9 27.6 27.6 27.7 28.1 28.4 27.9 27.4 27.2 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 146 140 133 128 129 131 137 142 135 129 127 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 121 116 110 106 107 108 115 119 115 110 108 106 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 -54.2 -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 10 11 9 12 8 11 9 10 8 8 700-500 MB RH 55 51 53 53 53 49 51 51 54 59 62 63 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 8 8 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -37 -43 -37 -54 -44 -56 -90 -102 -111 -49 -8 20 200 MB DIV 1 -3 27 -6 -5 -6 -10 0 -6 -16 24 14 52 700-850 TADV -1 0 7 2 -2 1 4 0 7 0 15 0 17 LAND (KM) -8 -47 -87 -70 -24 30 100 138 220 300 396 535 734 LAT (DEG N) 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.1 30.2 30.6 31.3 31.8 32.2 32.4 33.0 33.9 35.2 LONG(DEG W) 83.4 83.0 82.5 82.1 81.6 81.1 80.2 79.0 77.0 75.0 72.7 70.4 67.8 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 4 3 5 5 7 9 9 10 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 30 29 15 1 2 21 21 32 36 10 8 7 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):110/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 24. 24. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 11. 16. 17. 19. 20. 19. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952015 INVEST 08/03/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952015 INVEST 08/03/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952015 INVEST 08/03/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED