* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP092015 08/03/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 71 66 64 60 55 50 44 40 32 22 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 75 71 66 64 60 55 50 44 40 30 24 19 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 69 64 60 55 48 43 40 37 31 31 28 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 17 18 18 12 18 15 22 24 30 35 43 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 5 5 4 2 4 1 1 8 1 0 2 SHEAR DIR 286 284 293 294 280 285 268 260 252 250 252 264 266 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 138 137 135 134 135 135 135 135 136 140 136 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.5 -51.7 -51.9 -51.5 -52.0 -51.8 -52.1 -52.7 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 8 7 8 7 7 7 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 67 70 70 67 67 63 61 60 57 56 54 52 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 17 19 18 17 16 14 14 12 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR -2 6 11 10 21 34 41 43 40 23 16 0 -6 200 MB DIV 13 11 5 3 20 12 28 23 39 38 3 -6 10 700-850 TADV 5 5 9 8 4 3 3 2 4 1 0 -4 0 LAND (KM) 1177 1081 985 879 773 591 385 186 37 -4 13 128 453 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.5 16.9 17.5 18.2 19.0 19.9 20.9 21.8 22.9 24.1 LONG(DEG W) 144.6 145.4 146.2 147.1 148.0 149.6 151.4 153.1 154.7 156.4 158.1 160.6 163.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 11 9 9 10 15 20 15 21 17 3 7 24 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 730 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -11. -14. -19. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -10. -14. -15. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -11. -14. -20. -25. -31. -35. -43. -53. -58. -61. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/03/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/03/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##