* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922015 08/03/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 22 25 28 36 45 52 58 60 60 61 62 V (KT) LAND 20 20 22 25 28 36 45 52 58 60 60 61 62 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 22 25 29 35 41 48 55 62 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 3 3 4 2 5 6 8 10 11 12 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -1 0 0 0 -1 -7 -2 -1 -4 -7 -6 SHEAR DIR 260 295 338 2 26 352 3 336 359 12 18 353 359 SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 160 158 156 154 155 154 154 156 156 153 152 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -51.8 -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 -52.2 -52.6 -52.5 -52.9 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 69 69 70 70 70 72 72 74 76 75 71 68 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 0 2 9 10 14 8 13 26 33 31 20 11 200 MB DIV 44 28 25 34 35 43 42 36 53 46 47 50 30 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 0 0 -2 0 0 0 0 -1 -5 -5 LAND (KM) 1572 1606 1648 1695 1751 1882 2005 2151 2326 2479 2285 2054 1804 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.3 10.5 10.8 11.0 11.4 11.9 12.2 12.4 12.5 12.7 12.7 12.8 LONG(DEG W) 116.3 117.4 118.5 119.7 120.8 123.2 125.6 127.8 130.1 132.3 134.6 136.9 139.4 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 12 12 11 12 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 48 52 52 45 38 22 29 30 28 27 23 30 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 30. 35. 38. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 5. 8. 16. 25. 32. 38. 40. 40. 41. 42. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922015 INVEST 08/03/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922015 INVEST 08/03/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##