* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP092015 08/03/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 54 50 47 45 42 39 37 31 27 21 18 16 V (KT) LAND 60 54 50 47 45 42 39 37 31 27 21 18 16 V (KT) LGE mod 60 54 50 47 44 39 36 33 30 27 23 21 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 15 14 17 17 13 23 23 34 36 42 36 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 0 -1 -2 1 0 5 5 0 2 3 0 SHEAR DIR 284 289 285 284 285 269 262 250 251 252 258 259 266 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.5 27.4 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 134 134 135 134 136 136 136 136 140 138 135 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 66 65 65 63 62 59 58 55 53 52 51 49 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 15 16 15 15 15 13 12 11 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 16 15 16 23 28 32 37 39 24 14 3 -7 -18 200 MB DIV 1 0 9 12 10 32 29 46 32 0 4 8 4 700-850 TADV 4 4 3 3 5 5 3 8 8 2 -1 1 -2 LAND (KM) 1021 931 841 745 649 455 262 99 15 39 126 330 537 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.8 17.2 17.5 17.8 18.5 19.4 20.1 20.9 22.0 23.3 24.2 24.8 LONG(DEG W) 145.7 146.5 147.2 148.0 148.9 150.6 152.3 154.1 155.9 157.8 159.9 162.0 164.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 13 11 11 15 19 20 18 18 16 15 24 15 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 706 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -9. -14. -19. -23. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. 0. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -10. -13. -15. -18. -21. -23. -29. -33. -39. -42. -44. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/03/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/03/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##