* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922015 08/03/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 28 30 38 45 51 56 58 59 60 60 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 28 30 38 45 51 56 58 59 60 60 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 24 26 30 34 38 42 47 53 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 1 1 1 1 2 1 4 9 8 9 7 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 0 0 -4 -3 -2 -3 -6 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 329 107 116 94 294 32 301 345 21 34 346 332 323 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.9 28.8 28.4 28.5 28.8 28.8 28.3 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 152 151 151 154 153 149 150 153 153 149 149 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 -52.3 -52.0 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 72 72 73 72 72 73 72 72 71 68 64 61 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR 8 19 24 25 27 28 28 41 44 45 42 32 27 200 MB DIV 40 35 44 49 28 44 38 47 34 38 54 32 18 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -1 -2 0 2 0 0 1 -3 -6 -2 LAND (KM) 1615 1650 1692 1741 1791 1893 2017 2174 2333 2393 2145 1875 1590 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.9 11.2 11.5 11.7 12.2 12.7 13.0 13.1 13.3 13.4 13.6 13.8 LONG(DEG W) 118.1 119.2 120.2 121.2 122.2 124.4 126.6 128.8 131.0 133.3 135.7 138.3 141.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 50 45 38 33 24 16 26 29 26 22 21 17 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 29. 33. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 10. 18. 25. 31. 36. 38. 39. 40. 40. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922015 INVEST 08/03/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 1.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922015 INVEST 08/03/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##