* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC PROXY USED * * INVEST AL952015 08/03/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 22 23 24 28 33 40 48 54 52 47 37 V (KT) LAND 20 22 26 28 28 32 37 45 52 58 57 51 41 V (KT) LGE mod 20 22 24 23 23 23 25 29 34 38 37 34 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 22 27 31 28 11 18 18 31 27 39 37 34 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -3 -1 -1 -3 1 3 6 1 10 4 5 SHEAR DIR 324 320 325 329 324 256 244 253 246 253 235 259 249 SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.7 28.0 28.3 28.1 27.7 27.7 25.0 16.9 15.2 14.0 14.1 POT. INT. (KT) 132 129 132 136 141 141 137 138 112 79 77 76 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 110 108 111 114 120 124 126 128 104 76 75 74 73 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 8 10 7 8 7 7 3 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 51 51 48 48 51 52 51 46 33 35 43 54 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 8 9 13 18 27 30 28 21 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -49 -49 -45 -32 -56 -22 21 -10 -85 -41 5 43 200 MB DIV 0 19 19 2 -24 30 47 32 43 14 23 33 28 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 0 7 7 25 9 -11 8 -12 -15 -10 LAND (KM) -43 0 21 32 4 51 343 613 626 456 885 1427 619 LAT (DEG N) 30.7 31.1 31.5 32.2 32.8 34.2 35.7 37.4 39.8 42.9 46.3 49.3 52.4 LONG(DEG W) 81.9 81.5 81.0 80.4 79.8 77.0 72.1 65.9 59.0 50.9 41.3 30.1 19.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 8 11 17 24 28 32 36 39 39 37 HEAT CONTENT 2 8 14 13 10 15 13 25 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 17. 22. 25. 26. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 8. 9. 10. 9. 5. 0. -5. -9. -13. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 2. 8. 16. 18. 14. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 4. 8. 13. 20. 28. 34. 32. 27. 17. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952015 INVEST 08/03/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952015 INVEST 08/03/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952015 INVEST 08/03/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED