* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP092015 08/03/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 49 47 44 43 37 33 32 26 20 19 16 V (KT) LAND 55 52 49 47 44 43 37 33 32 26 20 19 16 V (KT) LGE mod 55 50 46 43 40 35 31 28 26 24 22 21 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 23 22 23 20 28 32 35 42 42 44 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 0 1 1 3 3 2 4 0 0 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 283 284 280 286 281 262 259 255 254 254 268 264 265 SST (C) 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.3 27.5 27.2 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 133 133 133 135 136 135 134 137 139 136 132 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.6 -51.6 -51.8 -52.2 -52.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 64 63 62 61 60 59 58 53 49 48 47 45 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 18 17 16 17 15 15 17 15 13 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR 13 23 26 19 21 40 33 40 29 25 7 9 -5 200 MB DIV 3 11 6 -1 -7 34 30 27 43 3 2 8 0 700-850 TADV 5 7 9 6 0 4 5 5 6 1 -3 0 0 LAND (KM) 922 834 747 649 553 366 212 126 133 108 230 450 691 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.6 17.9 18.3 18.7 19.5 20.4 21.3 22.2 23.1 23.9 24.8 25.9 LONG(DEG W) 146.4 147.2 147.9 148.8 149.6 151.3 153.0 154.9 156.8 158.9 160.9 163.0 165.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 12 16 17 14 15 14 14 21 20 15 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 712 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -16. -22. -28. -32. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -3. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. -2. -2. 0. -1. -4. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -11. -12. -18. -22. -23. -29. -35. -36. -39. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/03/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/03/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##