* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922015 08/03/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 29 33 38 44 49 51 53 51 50 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 29 33 38 44 49 51 53 51 50 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 25 27 28 30 33 36 38 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 2 3 3 2 5 4 10 8 11 8 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -1 0 -1 -2 0 -1 0 -1 3 2 SHEAR DIR 5 61 3 333 343 235 335 21 28 24 356 319 296 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.6 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.2 27.6 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 151 150 151 153 150 146 146 149 147 140 133 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 73 73 71 71 71 72 69 69 65 61 57 55 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 6 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR 19 23 26 26 29 35 40 51 38 24 8 6 15 200 MB DIV 33 42 31 24 19 48 39 22 17 15 21 7 15 700-850 TADV 0 1 -1 -2 -1 3 0 2 0 -1 -5 -5 0 LAND (KM) 1601 1628 1660 1705 1738 1818 1917 2053 2159 2285 2212 1970 1736 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.6 11.9 12.2 12.5 13.1 13.7 14.0 14.5 14.9 15.3 15.8 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 118.8 119.7 120.6 121.6 122.5 124.4 126.3 128.2 130.2 132.2 134.4 136.6 138.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 10 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 47 39 32 23 16 13 19 24 17 25 28 21 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 15. 23. 29. 33. 35. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 12. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 18. 24. 29. 31. 33. 31. 30. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922015 INVEST 08/03/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922015 INVEST 08/03/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##