* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP092015 08/04/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 52 51 49 45 42 34 31 26 22 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 54 52 51 49 45 42 34 31 26 22 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 53 51 48 46 39 35 30 27 25 22 20 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 21 25 24 21 27 31 42 39 46 40 45 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 2 1 5 4 3 1 0 1 5 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 284 280 281 276 268 260 246 251 253 260 261 266 262 SST (C) 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.1 26.9 27.1 27.3 27.0 26.7 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 132 133 134 135 135 133 135 137 134 131 132 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.3 -51.7 -51.9 -51.6 -52.2 -52.4 -53.0 -53.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 64 62 62 60 59 58 55 53 52 51 50 46 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 18 20 19 18 19 16 16 16 16 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 24 27 19 25 38 31 35 14 15 -1 2 -6 -5 200 MB DIV 21 11 0 -1 30 34 39 16 19 24 25 -3 8 700-850 TADV 11 14 11 8 10 8 8 12 6 6 3 1 2 LAND (KM) 842 754 667 567 471 303 208 163 200 268 424 614 824 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.3 18.7 19.2 19.6 20.5 21.4 22.4 23.5 24.6 25.5 26.0 26.2 LONG(DEG W) 147.0 147.8 148.5 149.4 150.3 152.1 153.9 155.8 157.9 159.9 161.7 164.0 166.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 10 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 8 11 14 14 12 10 13 14 15 14 12 12 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -15. -21. -28. -34. -39. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. 1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -13. -21. -24. -29. -33. -41. -43. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/04/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/04/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##