* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922015 08/04/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 36 40 46 52 57 59 59 57 55 52 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 36 40 46 52 57 59 59 57 55 52 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 33 36 41 45 49 52 55 56 56 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 5 4 2 4 4 10 11 12 11 13 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 0 0 -2 0 0 0 0 3 2 -3 SHEAR DIR 41 16 353 6 16 324 7 16 24 350 337 314 302 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.4 28.1 28.1 28.2 27.7 27.0 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 152 151 151 148 145 145 146 141 133 128 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -51.7 -52.1 -51.9 -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 74 71 69 69 71 70 68 67 63 59 57 59 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 27 29 30 34 36 36 38 42 25 5 -5 2 -1 200 MB DIV 36 35 42 38 48 36 27 22 28 5 6 10 3 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -1 1 1 0 0 0 -2 -3 0 1 LAND (KM) 1614 1652 1693 1721 1755 1846 1962 2070 2182 2300 2126 1924 1763 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.0 12.3 12.7 13.0 13.6 14.1 14.6 15.1 15.6 16.2 16.8 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 119.7 120.6 121.5 122.5 123.4 125.3 127.2 129.1 131.1 133.0 135.0 136.8 138.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 10 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 38 31 23 16 13 14 22 18 21 26 19 15 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 26. 30. 31. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 15. 21. 27. 32. 34. 34. 32. 30. 27. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922015 INVEST 08/04/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 56% is 4.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922015 INVEST 08/04/15 00 UTC ##