* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP092015 08/04/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 57 53 50 45 37 31 23 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 59 57 53 50 45 37 31 23 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 60 59 56 52 44 38 31 25 22 19 17 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 25 29 27 30 34 41 41 47 44 42 45 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 0 3 3 1 2 0 -5 4 4 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 270 276 278 274 266 252 251 258 253 259 260 271 268 SST (C) 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.9 27.2 27.1 26.6 26.6 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 131 132 131 132 134 134 133 133 136 135 130 130 131 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.6 -51.7 -51.4 -51.5 -52.4 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -54.1 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 60 61 59 58 56 55 54 55 51 49 47 46 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 20 19 18 19 18 17 14 12 12 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 23 13 20 30 27 27 26 18 7 -1 -8 -14 -25 200 MB DIV 11 0 4 27 17 29 13 13 13 0 24 3 -13 700-850 TADV 18 13 6 10 10 3 12 3 4 3 2 3 -1 LAND (KM) 785 688 596 510 429 303 220 226 240 345 544 733 919 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.1 19.6 20.0 20.4 21.3 22.3 23.2 24.2 25.2 26.2 26.7 26.8 LONG(DEG W) 147.4 148.3 149.1 150.0 150.8 152.6 154.6 156.5 158.4 160.5 162.7 164.9 167.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 8 12 11 9 9 9 12 12 13 11 7 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -10. -15. -21. -29. -36. -41. -46. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -10. -10. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -7. -10. -15. -23. -29. -37. -45. -49. -56. -60. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/04/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/04/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##