* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952015 08/04/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 41 44 52 55 56 55 54 48 38 32 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 41 44 52 55 56 55 54 48 38 32 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 37 39 42 46 46 46 45 43 42 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 34 21 17 25 24 23 39 60 57 48 35 23 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 4 -3 -1 -8 -3 -8 6 6 1 5 1 SHEAR DIR 324 317 279 258 252 234 219 229 243 253 246 255 261 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 27.8 27.7 28.1 27.3 21.1 10.7 14.4 12.0 12.7 12.5 11.3 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 137 137 143 134 90 72 76 73 72 70 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 125 122 124 131 123 84 71 73 71 70 68 66 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -54.1 -53.7 -52.3 -49.6 -47.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 11 12 9 7 7 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 45 47 51 52 57 56 52 50 53 60 68 65 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 5 5 4 7 7 11 17 24 23 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -27 -45 -47 -25 6 7 41 108 127 129 151 179 200 MB DIV 5 3 17 21 42 56 45 69 72 53 44 33 39 700-850 TADV -1 19 9 6 9 -15 -16 -11 -4 -37 -24 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 6 29 50 234 426 528 453 283 944 1319 655 344 270 LAT (DEG N) 33.3 34.1 34.8 35.7 36.6 38.8 42.0 45.9 49.5 52.5 55.3 58.1 60.9 LONG(DEG W) 79.2 77.5 75.8 73.3 70.8 64.5 57.7 49.6 40.1 29.7 19.9 11.8 5.8 STM SPEED (KT) 14 16 19 22 25 29 33 35 37 34 29 23 20 HEAT CONTENT 33 10 17 14 30 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 13 CX,CY: 9/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 753 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 7. 0. -9. -15. -19. -21. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 17. 18. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -16. -19. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 2. 8. 14. 13. 9. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 14. 22. 25. 26. 25. 24. 18. 8. 2. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952015 INVEST 08/04/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952015 INVEST 08/04/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952015 INVEST 08/04/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED