* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP092015 08/04/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 59 55 52 46 36 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 60 59 55 52 46 36 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 60 59 56 52 43 35 28 24 21 20 18 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 28 30 36 38 43 46 45 49 42 46 46 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 3 2 1 1 -3 -3 -1 2 1 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 273 270 267 268 260 254 253 252 255 258 263 263 266 SST (C) 26.7 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.0 27.0 26.8 27.0 27.2 26.8 26.6 26.6 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 130 132 133 134 134 134 132 134 136 132 130 130 129 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.4 -51.2 -51.3 -51.7 -52.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -54.0 -54.4 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 60 59 57 55 55 53 50 50 50 51 48 47 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 20 19 19 18 16 14 13 12 12 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 13 18 26 27 24 33 16 11 -2 -8 -16 -12 -23 200 MB DIV 1 11 28 24 28 28 1 10 14 25 26 3 4 700-850 TADV 16 9 13 8 10 10 10 6 4 9 4 4 2 LAND (KM) 702 613 529 441 363 277 216 238 300 458 659 868 1066 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.8 20.3 20.7 21.0 21.9 22.8 23.8 24.9 25.8 26.4 27.0 27.3 LONG(DEG W) 148.1 149.0 149.8 150.8 151.7 153.5 155.5 157.5 159.6 161.8 164.2 166.4 168.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 7 4 4 8 10 13 11 10 9 9 8 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -6. -8. -14. -20. -27. -36. -43. -48. -54. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -9. -10. -10. -12. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -5. -8. -14. -24. -32. -40. -46. -52. -57. -62. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/04/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/04/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##