* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922015 08/04/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 31 37 44 48 53 55 55 54 54 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 31 37 44 48 53 55 55 54 54 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 28 31 36 40 45 50 54 56 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 8 7 4 6 6 7 8 4 4 4 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -2 -1 -3 -4 -2 0 -3 -2 0 1 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 19 27 36 45 35 22 28 29 32 23 333 310 284 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.5 28.8 28.6 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 154 153 151 148 150 153 151 146 144 142 139 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -51.7 -51.8 -52.0 -51.7 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 69 68 69 68 68 68 68 62 59 58 56 55 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 28 31 27 33 32 38 49 41 35 29 21 16 16 200 MB DIV 37 30 32 22 27 50 30 14 33 33 33 23 12 700-850 TADV -3 -3 0 1 0 -1 0 0 1 -5 0 0 -2 LAND (KM) 1747 1806 1872 1939 2011 2162 2322 2344 2105 1826 1544 1279 1061 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.6 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.5 13.6 13.8 13.9 14.3 14.6 15.0 15.5 LONG(DEG W) 122.5 123.7 124.8 125.9 127.0 129.1 131.4 133.6 135.9 138.5 141.2 143.7 145.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 10 11 11 11 12 13 13 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 14 12 14 18 22 22 20 23 24 15 15 12 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 27. 30. 32. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 6. 12. 19. 23. 28. 30. 30. 29. 29. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922015 INVEST 08/04/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 18.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922015 INVEST 08/04/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##