* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP092015 08/04/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 53 49 46 37 29 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 58 53 49 46 37 29 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 58 56 52 48 39 31 25 21 19 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 28 35 37 43 46 47 50 47 47 46 51 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 3 5 0 -1 -2 -5 1 0 -2 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 268 263 262 257 259 258 254 256 261 260 272 263 267 SST (C) 26.7 26.8 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.8 27.1 27.1 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 130 131 133 133 133 131 131 135 135 129 128 129 124 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.2 -51.3 -51.5 -52.1 -52.7 -53.1 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -54.1 -54.6 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 57 55 54 53 53 49 49 48 48 46 49 48 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 18 19 17 15 13 11 10 9 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 18 24 25 26 32 29 17 1 -7 -15 -22 -29 -39 200 MB DIV 9 26 20 31 19 15 7 -1 0 18 -7 3 4 700-850 TADV 14 13 9 15 12 10 6 3 5 3 5 -2 3 LAND (KM) 650 566 491 418 365 296 271 293 367 511 641 844 1088 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.4 20.8 21.4 21.9 22.8 23.4 24.4 25.5 26.3 26.6 27.4 28.5 LONG(DEG W) 148.6 149.5 150.3 151.3 152.3 154.1 155.8 157.7 159.9 161.9 163.7 165.7 167.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 10 9 9 11 10 9 9 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 5 9 10 10 7 7 7 5 6 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -9. -15. -21. -30. -38. -46. -53. -58. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -13. -16. -16. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -7. -11. -14. -23. -31. -40. -48. -54. -61. -65. -66. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/04/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/04/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##