* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922015 08/04/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 39 45 51 56 60 60 59 56 54 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 36 39 45 51 56 60 60 59 56 54 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 38 43 48 52 57 60 62 61 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 9 6 7 7 9 7 10 3 8 13 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -3 -3 -3 1 0 -2 0 1 1 -2 -6 SHEAR DIR 24 30 38 36 3 19 23 20 21 12 311 294 276 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.4 27.6 27.4 27.1 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 154 152 149 148 149 152 149 141 138 135 132 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 69 69 69 71 69 69 68 62 60 56 55 55 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 31 27 30 30 32 36 36 31 19 11 1 4 0 200 MB DIV 26 27 22 19 31 22 14 19 29 15 14 7 6 700-850 TADV -4 0 1 1 -1 -1 1 1 -2 -2 3 0 2 LAND (KM) 1855 1903 1956 2018 2083 2213 2345 2313 2053 1770 1494 1263 1088 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.3 12.6 12.8 13.0 13.4 13.7 14.1 14.5 15.0 15.6 16.4 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 123.6 124.7 125.7 126.7 127.7 129.7 131.8 133.8 136.2 138.8 141.3 143.3 144.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 10 10 10 11 12 13 11 10 7 HEAT CONTENT 15 15 19 22 25 20 21 25 26 15 13 12 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 27. 28. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 15. 21. 26. 30. 30. 29. 27. 24. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922015 INVEST 08/04/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922015 INVEST 08/04/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##