* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP092015 08/05/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 57 53 49 45 34 26 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 57 53 49 45 34 26 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 58 55 52 48 38 30 25 22 19 17 15 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 31 37 42 41 49 48 49 43 48 45 44 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 3 0 3 0 -4 0 2 1 -2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 265 267 263 259 253 261 255 256 258 267 268 273 275 SST (C) 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.9 27.2 27.1 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 131 132 134 134 133 131 132 136 135 131 128 127 123 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.4 -51.8 -52.3 -52.3 -53.0 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.4 -54.8 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 53 51 51 51 50 47 47 47 49 50 51 50 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 16 16 17 17 13 11 10 10 9 9 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 24 20 20 27 27 7 0 -16 -20 -23 -18 -29 -35 200 MB DIV 24 21 22 7 31 9 1 11 21 2 -1 3 0 700-850 TADV 9 6 5 6 7 7 5 7 10 4 3 1 0 LAND (KM) 577 501 435 368 318 261 294 299 364 518 697 910 1112 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.4 20.9 21.4 21.9 22.9 23.9 24.7 25.4 26.1 26.8 27.6 28.3 LONG(DEG W) 149.3 150.1 150.9 151.9 152.9 154.8 156.4 158.2 160.4 162.4 164.3 166.4 168.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 11 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 3 5 8 10 11 9 6 7 7 7 7 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -10. -16. -23. -31. -39. -47. -53. -58. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -7. -10. -12. -12. -13. -14. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -11. -15. -26. -34. -43. -48. -55. -60. -67. -67. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/05/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/05/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##