* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922015 08/05/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 34 37 44 52 58 62 63 65 65 65 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 34 37 44 52 58 62 63 65 65 65 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 30 35 40 45 51 57 63 67 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 7 6 7 7 5 9 8 7 10 8 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -4 -2 0 -2 -5 -1 -1 -2 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 37 47 47 9 8 14 23 7 37 7 21 354 315 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.2 27.8 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 153 151 150 153 154 153 152 152 148 143 141 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 67 68 69 68 68 71 69 68 66 64 61 61 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 8 7 7 8 7 7 7 8 7 8 850 MB ENV VOR 28 31 26 23 18 21 16 18 0 -3 -2 3 -7 200 MB DIV 35 32 28 33 37 21 6 20 28 18 18 21 15 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 -2 -3 0 1 -1 -1 0 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1946 2018 2095 2184 2274 2458 2372 2132 1863 1578 1290 1022 798 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.2 12.3 12.3 12.3 12.2 12.3 12.3 12.6 12.9 13.4 14.0 14.6 LONG(DEG W) 124.9 126.1 127.2 128.3 129.4 131.7 133.9 136.3 138.9 141.7 144.5 147.1 149.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 13 14 13 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 18 23 25 28 29 23 18 28 18 14 33 24 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 27. 31. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 12. 19. 27. 33. 37. 38. 40. 40. 41. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922015 INVEST 08/05/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922015 INVEST 08/05/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##