* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP092015 08/05/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 51 47 44 42 31 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 51 47 44 42 31 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 52 49 46 42 34 27 23 20 17 15 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 31 39 43 42 42 46 47 47 48 44 42 26 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 -1 0 2 0 0 1 2 2 3 2 -2 SHEAR DIR 259 262 261 254 251 257 255 260 260 269 266 291 302 SST (C) 26.9 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 26.9 27.0 27.4 27.3 26.9 26.7 26.4 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 132 134 134 133 133 133 134 138 137 133 131 128 125 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -53.1 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -54.5 -55.0 -55.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 49 50 50 50 49 47 48 48 48 50 50 52 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 14 15 15 17 12 10 9 8 7 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 21 17 23 28 31 10 1 -8 -14 -11 -25 -38 -54 200 MB DIV 25 13 0 13 25 2 1 10 -9 0 -4 -8 -22 700-850 TADV 6 6 9 6 1 6 0 10 2 6 0 3 -1 LAND (KM) 507 426 359 303 262 181 185 200 333 554 817 1053 1298 LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.7 21.1 21.5 21.8 22.4 23.3 24.0 24.5 25.4 26.6 27.5 28.4 LONG(DEG W) 150.0 150.9 151.8 152.7 153.6 155.4 157.5 159.6 161.7 163.8 166.1 168.3 170.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 5 8 10 12 13 14 13 16 13 15 4 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -10. -15. -22. -31. -40. -48. -53. -55. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 1. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -11. -13. -24. -31. -38. -45. -52. -56. -59. -60. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/05/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 39.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/05/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##