* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922015 08/05/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 43 50 56 58 59 58 58 55 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 43 50 56 58 59 58 58 55 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 34 39 44 48 51 53 54 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 8 7 7 8 11 10 7 10 9 12 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 0 0 0 -2 2 2 0 -2 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 51 32 22 20 23 23 26 36 16 7 341 297 269 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.8 28.9 28.4 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.2 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 149 149 149 153 154 149 145 141 137 135 132 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.6 -51.4 -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -51.9 -52.3 -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 69 69 69 68 69 66 65 62 58 56 56 53 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 8 7 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 21 24 22 22 23 24 21 4 2 4 5 6 7 200 MB DIV 28 27 39 37 33 10 13 10 -1 11 12 14 1 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -3 -1 1 -1 -1 2 0 0 1 2 LAND (KM) 2072 2139 2209 2285 2352 2465 2240 1977 1706 1461 1243 1071 952 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.6 13.0 13.3 13.8 14.3 14.9 15.6 16.4 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 126.8 127.8 128.7 129.7 130.7 132.7 134.8 137.2 139.7 141.9 143.8 145.2 146.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 10 10 10 11 12 11 11 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 24 24 26 27 27 26 22 20 11 15 11 15 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 27. 30. 32. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 18. 25. 31. 33. 34. 33. 33. 30. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922015 INVEST 08/05/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922015 INVEST 08/05/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##