* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP092015 08/06/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 36 32 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 41 36 32 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 42 38 34 31 26 22 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 39 43 42 44 44 45 43 48 42 43 34 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 0 0 -3 -2 2 4 1 3 1 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 249 254 258 258 258 257 260 268 270 282 296 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.2 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.7 26.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 134 133 133 133 136 138 135 132 131 128 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -52.0 -52.7 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -54.1 -54.4 -54.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 47 46 45 45 48 48 48 47 47 49 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 23 13 9 1 -7 -11 -17 -17 -29 -45 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 -17 -14 -6 -2 5 11 -7 -3 -19 -19 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 2 2 4 6 7 7 4 4 0 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 377 311 260 197 178 144 224 435 661 913 1173 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.4 21.8 22.1 22.4 22.6 23.2 24.0 24.9 25.7 26.7 27.7 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 151.8 152.9 153.9 155.0 156.2 158.4 160.6 162.7 164.9 167.2 169.6 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 11 12 12 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 11 12 12 11 19 13 11 7 5 6 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -12. -19. -28. -38. -47. -52. -55. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -14. -14. -15. -16. -16. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -13. -17. -25. -32. -41. -49. -56. -63. -66. -66. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/06/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 42.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 4.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/06/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##