* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP092015 08/06/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 37 35 32 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 41 37 35 32 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 42 38 35 32 27 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 42 43 44 43 45 45 48 47 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 -2 -2 0 3 3 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 251 255 256 254 252 258 263 268 275 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.4 27.4 26.9 26.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 133 133 133 139 139 134 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.7 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 43 43 43 43 46 48 49 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 11 11 12 11 9 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 4 -1 1 -5 -10 -19 -18 -31 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -15 -14 -3 12 24 1 -4 -2 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 4 7 4 8 4 4 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 319 277 220 188 181 155 310 555 828 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.7 22.0 22.3 22.6 22.9 23.6 24.3 25.3 26.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 152.7 153.7 154.6 155.7 156.8 159.3 161.6 163.9 166.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 12 12 11 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 12 11 11 11 18 12 12 4 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -7. -12. -19. -29. -39. -48. -54. -58. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -14. -15. -16. -16. -17. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -10. -13. -21. -29. -39. -46. -54. -60. -64. -64. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/06/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 43.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 3.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/06/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##