* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN EP102015 08/06/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 41 47 55 61 64 66 65 64 62 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 41 47 55 61 64 66 65 64 62 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 36 41 47 53 59 63 64 63 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 5 2 4 8 5 6 4 8 8 14 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 1 -1 0 2 2 3 0 -2 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 63 81 85 70 16 23 51 35 352 335 278 278 253 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 151 153 153 152 149 146 142 138 134 131 127 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 -51.5 -51.6 -52.0 -51.9 -52.3 -52.2 -52.8 -52.5 -53.0 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 67 69 70 68 68 68 67 64 60 60 60 62 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 12 12 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR 24 27 30 32 32 24 18 11 15 17 14 1 3 200 MB DIV 26 21 17 23 18 20 27 18 32 27 21 29 36 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 -1 -2 0 -1 0 0 0 2 2 LAND (KM) 2331 2400 2471 2437 2339 2144 1953 1757 1529 1337 1179 1074 1014 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.6 12.6 12.7 13.2 13.8 14.7 15.5 16.2 17.2 18.5 LONG(DEG W) 130.3 131.3 132.2 133.2 134.1 136.0 137.7 139.4 141.3 142.9 144.2 144.9 145.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 10 9 8 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 27 28 29 28 23 24 20 12 14 13 13 16 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 26. 28. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 9. 7. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 25. 31. 34. 36. 35. 34. 32. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102015 TEN 08/06/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102015 TEN 08/06/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##