* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN EP102015 08/06/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 44 48 56 62 65 66 65 63 61 57 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 44 48 56 62 65 66 65 63 61 57 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 40 43 46 53 60 66 70 69 67 63 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 6 5 7 4 5 4 8 12 18 24 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 -2 0 -1 1 0 -3 -1 -6 -5 SHEAR DIR 84 80 83 61 38 70 5 358 322 295 277 264 254 SST (C) 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.9 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 151 153 154 154 153 150 145 144 140 136 133 131 129 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.7 -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 -51.5 -52.0 -51.9 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 67 67 66 65 64 63 62 58 56 54 55 57 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 12 13 14 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR 29 32 35 34 26 27 28 20 31 21 13 3 3 200 MB DIV 9 14 19 22 25 40 21 17 36 35 33 30 19 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 -1 -2 0 -1 0 0 0 2 2 3 LAND (KM) 2410 2486 2386 2283 2180 1948 1733 1508 1270 1073 922 804 697 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.8 12.8 13.3 13.9 14.5 15.2 16.1 17.2 18.1 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 131.6 132.6 133.6 134.6 135.6 137.7 139.6 141.6 143.7 145.3 146.4 147.3 148.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 8 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 29 33 29 23 22 18 8 10 10 14 15 13 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 23. 23. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 21. 27. 30. 31. 30. 28. 26. 22. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102015 TEN 08/06/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102015 TEN 08/06/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##