* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP092015 08/06/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 30 27 26 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 32 30 27 26 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 30 28 26 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 44 43 46 45 43 45 42 41 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 3 5 1 4 0 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 255 252 250 257 262 265 268 285 290 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.6 27.8 27.6 27.8 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 135 136 138 141 144 142 144 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 8 9 10 9 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 39 40 42 43 43 47 46 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -8 -10 -18 -21 -26 -19 -34 -44 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -3 6 2 6 -1 -4 5 -1 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 3 5 1 0 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 159 97 78 67 52 327 637 939 1250 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.7 21.9 22.0 22.3 22.5 23.0 23.5 24.1 24.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 154.8 156.1 157.3 158.7 160.0 162.8 165.8 168.7 171.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 14 10 12 16 15 13 12 21 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 705 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -8. -16. -25. -36. -45. -51. -55. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -12. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -8. -9. -13. -19. -25. -32. -39. -44. -47. -47. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/06/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 44.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/06/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##