* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP102015 08/06/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 54 59 62 68 71 71 71 67 65 62 58 V (KT) LAND 45 50 54 59 62 68 71 71 71 67 65 62 58 V (KT) LGE mod 45 51 57 62 67 75 81 83 81 77 72 69 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 6 7 7 2 5 6 11 12 16 25 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 0 -5 -4 -4 -4 -6 SHEAR DIR 83 81 76 58 56 68 327 320 315 268 261 240 251 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 154 153 151 147 146 143 137 134 133 133 135 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.5 -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -52.1 -52.0 -52.5 -52.2 -52.6 -52.7 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 67 66 65 63 63 62 57 56 52 52 57 60 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 12 13 14 15 850 MB ENV VOR 31 32 31 25 24 27 22 33 30 25 7 9 13 200 MB DIV 4 10 13 23 34 17 17 32 27 30 21 37 42 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 1 2 5 LAND (KM) 2467 2363 2260 2140 2021 1801 1561 1318 1091 928 814 657 453 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 12.8 12.8 12.9 13.0 13.7 14.2 14.8 15.7 16.5 17.4 18.2 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 132.8 133.8 134.8 136.0 137.1 139.0 141.2 143.4 145.3 146.6 147.4 148.7 150.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 11 10 11 11 11 9 7 6 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 33 26 22 23 22 10 10 13 15 19 20 24 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 14. 15. 16. 16. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -11. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 2. 5. 7. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 14. 17. 23. 26. 26. 26. 22. 20. 17. 13. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102015 HILDA 08/06/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 2.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102015 HILDA 08/06/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##