* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932015 08/06/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 15 16 18 20 23 29 36 42 48 53 59 63 67 V (KT) LAND 15 16 18 20 23 29 36 42 48 53 59 63 67 V (KT) LGE mod 15 15 16 16 17 18 19 20 21 23 28 34 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 6 10 13 9 8 6 8 7 5 9 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 0 1 3 2 0 -3 -5 -5 -4 -7 SHEAR DIR 23 4 345 344 353 1 351 8 10 58 52 60 51 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 152 153 153 151 148 149 150 151 152 152 152 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 82 82 81 79 77 74 69 69 67 67 67 65 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 5 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 11 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -1 -6 -12 -18 -34 -55 -55 -54 -41 -17 3 23 200 MB DIV 35 40 32 31 25 21 -8 13 29 19 7 8 18 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -4 -4 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 1992 2028 2066 2088 2114 2174 2247 2329 2418 2499 2513 2451 2392 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.4 10.6 11.0 11.3 11.8 12.0 12.0 11.9 11.8 11.6 11.2 10.8 LONG(DEG W) 123.1 124.0 124.9 125.7 126.4 127.7 128.8 129.8 130.8 131.8 132.8 133.6 134.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 33 28 24 24 25 28 33 32 32 36 41 32 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 36. 39. 42. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 21. 27. 33. 38. 44. 48. 52. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932015 INVEST 08/06/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932015 INVEST 08/06/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##