* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP102015 08/07/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 56 61 66 70 76 78 80 76 73 68 63 56 V (KT) LAND 50 56 61 66 70 76 78 80 76 73 68 63 56 V (KT) LGE mod 50 57 64 70 75 84 89 90 87 81 75 66 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 8 8 7 2 6 5 8 14 21 27 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 2 1 -3 -1 -4 0 -1 6 2 SHEAR DIR 91 85 62 61 65 54 353 330 274 255 245 227 234 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.1 27.7 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 153 151 149 149 146 141 136 134 133 132 133 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.2 -51.6 -51.4 -52.0 -52.1 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 66 65 65 64 64 64 59 56 53 56 60 59 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 13 13 14 13 13 14 14 16 17 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR 33 30 28 25 21 22 19 37 33 24 22 22 21 200 MB DIV 10 16 23 36 39 18 19 29 27 56 71 61 45 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -3 -3 -1 0 1 0 3 7 11 11 LAND (KM) 2345 2229 2114 1995 1877 1667 1410 1182 975 822 706 575 445 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.4 14.1 15.0 16.1 16.9 17.6 18.2 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 134.0 135.2 136.3 137.5 138.6 140.5 142.8 144.7 146.3 147.5 148.4 149.5 150.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 10 11 11 10 8 7 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 25 22 25 22 15 8 17 15 20 27 27 23 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 3. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 7. 8. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 16. 20. 26. 28. 30. 26. 23. 18. 13. 6. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102015 HILDA 08/07/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102015 HILDA 08/07/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##