* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP092015 08/07/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 25 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 25 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 25 23 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 47 51 51 50 50 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 3 1 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 252 256 259 261 265 275 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 27.1 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 136 139 141 143 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 38 40 40 41 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 6 6 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -15 -17 -23 -22 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 -7 -12 -22 -27 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 3 1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 123 71 45 101 230 562 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.1 22.3 22.5 22.8 23.1 23.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 156.5 157.8 159.0 160.4 161.7 164.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 13 14 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 11 15 18 19 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 695 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 20. 23. 24. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -7. -17. -29. -43. -54. -60. -64. -66. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -7. -11. -14. -16. -17. -18. -19. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -6. -11. -19. -28. -36. -45. -52. -55. -55. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/07/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 50.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/07/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##