* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP102015 08/07/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 57 59 64 66 69 67 63 59 52 47 V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 57 59 64 66 69 67 63 59 52 47 V (KT) LGE mod 50 52 55 57 60 65 70 73 71 67 60 52 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 7 5 2 1 3 4 10 16 25 31 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 2 5 3 -2 -4 -1 -2 2 2 2 SHEAR DIR 86 64 55 68 83 29 319 282 218 235 229 231 236 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.8 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 151 150 149 147 142 138 135 133 132 131 131 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 -51.0 -51.1 -51.4 -51.3 -52.1 -51.9 -52.5 -52.2 -53.2 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 66 65 64 63 64 62 59 57 55 58 57 55 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 15 15 16 16 18 19 19 19 19 18 850 MB ENV VOR 30 26 21 18 21 14 33 37 38 27 35 17 29 200 MB DIV 14 24 33 42 25 13 34 54 67 83 71 58 8 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -3 -3 -4 -1 0 1 2 6 9 8 5 LAND (KM) 2249 2131 2015 1900 1785 1561 1318 1101 914 763 652 565 494 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.7 12.7 13.0 13.2 14.0 14.8 15.7 16.6 17.4 18.0 18.6 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 135.0 136.2 137.3 138.4 139.4 141.3 143.4 145.2 146.7 147.9 148.8 149.5 150.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 7 6 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 23 25 24 16 10 10 13 14 20 25 24 21 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 9. 7. 4. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 14. 16. 19. 17. 13. 9. 2. -3. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102015 HILDA 08/07/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102015 HILDA 08/07/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##