* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP102015 08/07/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 52 55 57 62 66 65 64 59 52 46 40 V (KT) LAND 50 51 52 55 57 62 66 65 64 59 52 46 40 V (KT) LGE mod 50 51 52 54 57 61 65 67 66 60 52 46 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 7 7 4 2 2 6 12 21 32 38 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 3 6 1 -3 -2 -2 0 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 74 62 69 75 73 58 323 241 231 231 229 231 257 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.0 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.9 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 150 149 149 144 140 137 136 134 131 131 131 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.6 -51.1 -51.1 -51.3 -51.0 -51.6 -51.6 -52.1 -52.3 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 64 62 63 62 65 61 57 57 59 60 60 58 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 16 16 16 16 16 17 16 15 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR 21 16 16 20 16 10 23 24 22 10 11 24 12 200 MB DIV 15 26 34 23 16 13 8 34 54 88 65 57 14 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -4 -2 0 1 4 6 9 10 6 2 LAND (KM) 2134 2030 1927 1809 1692 1468 1226 1008 835 693 615 556 514 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.2 13.5 14.3 15.1 15.8 16.4 17.4 18.7 19.9 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 136.1 137.1 138.1 139.2 140.2 142.1 144.2 146.1 147.6 148.6 149.0 149.5 150.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 8 7 7 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 23 26 22 13 9 11 12 20 31 27 23 10 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 9. 7. 3. -1. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 8. 12. 16. 15. 14. 9. 2. -4. -10. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102015 HILDA 08/07/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102015 HILDA 08/07/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##