* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP092015 08/07/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 25 25 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 25 25 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 21 19 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 52 53 55 56 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 -1 -3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 260 261 265 270 277 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 142 141 139 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 39 40 42 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -21 -25 -20 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -12 -23 -24 -14 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 3 1 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 88 207 366 539 713 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.4 23.8 24.3 24.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 159.5 161.2 162.8 164.5 166.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 16 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 18 12 10 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 774 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 18. 23. 26. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -5. -15. -30. -46. -59. -67. -72. -73. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -16. -17. -18. -19. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 0. -2. -7. -15. -24. -34. -41. -44. -43. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/07/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 53.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/07/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##