* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP102015 08/07/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 68 72 74 78 77 75 71 63 53 45 36 V (KT) LAND 60 64 68 72 74 78 77 75 71 63 53 45 36 V (KT) LGE mod 60 65 69 73 77 81 82 79 74 65 55 46 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 8 5 4 1 4 11 18 25 37 45 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 4 5 0 -4 -4 -3 4 1 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 63 71 82 89 77 158 242 239 238 236 254 262 266 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 150 149 147 143 140 137 135 134 132 131 131 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.2 -51.2 -51.4 -51.4 -51.2 -51.8 -51.8 -52.4 -52.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 60 60 61 61 61 58 54 55 58 59 56 54 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 16 15 16 15 16 18 17 15 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR 17 17 21 19 19 29 29 28 24 26 23 32 13 200 MB DIV 9 27 27 25 13 23 19 40 68 76 37 -15 -15 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 -2 -1 0 3 4 7 8 9 3 0 LAND (KM) 1990 1865 1741 1621 1502 1275 1052 874 734 592 464 411 405 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.9 13.1 13.5 13.8 14.5 15.3 16.0 16.7 17.7 19.0 20.0 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 137.6 138.8 139.9 141.0 142.0 144.0 145.9 147.4 148.5 149.5 150.4 150.9 151.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 10 10 9 7 6 8 6 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 27 18 10 9 12 19 21 29 34 24 21 14 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 1. -5. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 3. 2. 3. 6. 4. 1. 0. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 14. 18. 17. 15. 11. 3. -7. -15. -24. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102015 HILDA 08/07/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102015 HILDA 08/07/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##