* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP102015 08/08/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 100 105 109 109 106 97 85 71 60 49 37 28 V (KT) LAND 90 100 105 109 109 106 97 85 71 60 49 37 28 V (KT) LGE mod 90 104 113 116 116 110 100 88 75 62 50 39 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 7 4 3 1 9 19 24 35 35 39 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 5 4 -4 -4 0 4 0 4 2 1 SHEAR DIR 80 78 95 77 57 304 224 238 233 243 247 258 265 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 149 147 144 141 137 135 133 132 132 132 133 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.3 -51.5 -51.5 -51.1 -51.6 -51.3 -52.0 -52.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.8 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 61 61 62 58 59 58 58 59 61 60 59 55 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 17 18 17 18 17 17 15 14 13 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 22 23 16 18 20 25 19 20 19 21 21 5 3 200 MB DIV 6 22 14 15 29 14 29 57 70 48 40 -8 1 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 5 11 11 9 6 3 1 LAND (KM) 1838 1726 1614 1490 1367 1159 970 782 626 513 471 399 312 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.2 13.5 13.9 14.2 14.9 15.8 16.7 17.6 18.6 19.7 20.4 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 139.0 140.0 141.0 142.1 143.2 145.0 146.5 148.0 149.2 150.0 150.3 151.1 152.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 11 10 9 8 8 7 6 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 15 10 9 13 20 17 23 33 25 22 14 12 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -8. -12. -17. -21. -24. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. 0. 0. 3. 5. 4. 2. -1. -5. -10. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 10. 15. 16. 16. 12. 8. 5. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 3. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 10. 15. 19. 19. 16. 7. -5. -19. -30. -41. -52. -62. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102015 HILDA 08/08/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 40.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 2.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 31% is 5.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 26% is 6.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102015 HILDA 08/08/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##