* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP092015 08/08/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 26 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 26 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 22 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 58 57 52 47 49 56 58 60 55 56 55 53 54 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 1 5 4 -3 -5 -10 -5 -8 -8 -6 -7 SHEAR DIR 265 269 274 277 277 290 291 294 279 274 261 253 256 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 136 135 134 133 134 136 138 140 140 140 140 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -54.4 -54.1 -54.4 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 9 9 8 9 8 9 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 37 41 43 42 41 43 40 43 43 48 49 52 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 4 3 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -26 -27 -34 -33 -46 -46 -31 -26 -3 5 18 10 200 MB DIV -21 -16 -18 -1 -17 -26 -26 -18 -25 -5 -6 10 4 700-850 TADV 3 0 1 3 -1 -10 -13 -21 -15 -16 -8 -6 -3 LAND (KM) 311 378 444 501 558 649 719 772 830 871 900 930 967 LAT (DEG N) 23.6 23.9 24.1 24.3 24.4 24.6 24.5 24.1 23.7 23.2 23.0 23.0 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 162.3 162.9 163.5 164.0 164.6 165.5 166.3 167.0 167.7 168.2 168.5 168.8 169.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 1 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 15 12 10 10 10 9 8 9 10 11 10 12 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 751 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 25. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -5. -15. -31. -48. -62. -70. -74. -75. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -14. -16. -16. -17. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. -2. -8. -18. -30. -41. -48. -51. -50. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/08/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 52.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 5.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/08/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##