* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP102015 08/08/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 97 102 105 105 102 96 82 69 57 45 31 23 V (KT) LAND 90 97 102 105 105 102 96 82 69 57 45 31 23 V (KT) LGE mod 90 100 105 107 107 104 97 87 72 59 47 37 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 5 5 2 1 12 21 35 38 44 50 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 4 4 -1 -3 1 5 1 1 3 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 84 97 70 78 98 256 237 236 243 255 264 269 272 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 147 144 142 139 136 133 133 133 133 133 133 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.3 -51.4 -50.9 -51.0 -51.5 -51.3 -52.0 -52.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.8 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 59 60 58 60 57 57 57 60 61 56 54 50 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 18 18 17 16 18 16 16 15 14 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 31 27 26 32 36 32 29 29 28 14 35 29 23 200 MB DIV 14 25 29 42 38 41 64 95 54 40 9 -13 -30 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 1 3 8 10 9 4 5 0 LAND (KM) 1697 1570 1445 1333 1222 1000 797 634 532 431 348 264 176 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.2 14.6 15.4 16.4 17.4 18.3 19.2 19.9 20.5 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 140.3 141.5 142.6 143.5 144.5 146.4 148.0 149.2 149.9 150.7 151.5 152.5 153.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 9 10 18 23 18 24 36 25 24 20 17 15 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -8. -13. -17. -21. -25. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. 0. 1. 4. 4. 3. 0. -5. -10. -16. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 6. 9. 10. 10. 7. 5. 3. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 3. 0. 0. -2. -3. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 15. 15. 12. 6. -8. -21. -33. -45. -59. -67. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102015 HILDA 08/08/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 2.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 23% is 5.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102015 HILDA 08/08/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##