* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP102015 08/08/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 97 99 99 98 93 80 67 52 40 27 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 95 97 99 99 98 93 80 67 52 40 27 16 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 95 96 96 95 93 88 78 66 55 44 35 28 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 4 1 3 9 18 26 36 42 47 50 56 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 6 2 -2 -1 3 4 5 1 -1 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 82 57 57 341 193 242 243 239 243 249 263 265 273 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 149 146 145 142 140 137 134 133 132 133 132 132 132 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.3 -50.8 -51.0 -51.2 -51.1 -51.5 -51.7 -52.6 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 59 57 60 58 57 57 61 62 60 57 55 52 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 18 17 16 18 16 15 13 12 10 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 26 24 31 40 35 27 22 20 18 20 12 3 -1 200 MB DIV 21 28 50 36 30 52 70 79 59 38 9 1 -8 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -1 0 0 3 6 12 11 8 3 3 0 LAND (KM) 1556 1445 1334 1224 1115 907 758 629 499 398 320 274 244 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.6 15.0 15.9 16.8 17.8 18.8 19.6 20.1 20.7 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 141.6 142.6 143.6 144.5 145.4 147.1 148.2 149.1 150.1 151.0 151.8 152.5 153.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 14 22 28 20 15 20 33 24 21 17 16 15 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -12. -17. -22. -27. -30. -33. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -4. -9. -14. -20. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. 0. -3. -4. -7. -8. -12. -14. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 3. -2. -15. -28. -43. -55. -68. -79. -87. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102015 HILDA 08/08/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102015 HILDA 08/08/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##