* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP102015 08/08/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 125 126 124 117 101 82 65 49 40 30 19 DIS V (KT) LAND 120 125 126 124 117 101 82 65 49 40 30 19 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 120 124 122 116 110 95 80 65 52 42 34 28 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 4 2 1 5 13 22 29 39 43 51 53 56 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 0 -2 -3 3 3 7 1 0 -5 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 51 70 114 343 294 251 259 252 254 259 263 264 273 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 143 141 140 136 134 133 133 133 133 133 132 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.7 -50.8 -51.1 -51.3 -50.9 -51.5 -51.8 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 58 60 59 57 57 59 61 61 58 54 52 51 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 20 19 18 18 16 15 13 13 12 10 7 850 MB ENV VOR 28 32 40 36 37 28 26 18 19 24 22 13 5 200 MB DIV 31 46 40 24 24 52 65 51 37 18 1 -23 -23 700-850 TADV -4 -1 0 0 3 5 9 11 8 2 4 0 1 LAND (KM) 1436 1313 1191 1087 983 797 643 521 435 335 224 177 174 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.0 14.3 14.8 15.2 16.2 17.0 18.0 18.9 19.5 19.9 20.4 21.0 LONG(DEG W) 142.8 143.9 145.0 145.9 146.7 148.1 149.3 150.1 150.7 151.6 152.7 153.4 153.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 9 8 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 26 30 21 19 19 34 27 23 21 22 21 22 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -19. -28. -36. -43. -50. -54. -58. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -18. -24. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 8. 12. 12. 11. 6. 1. -1. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -4. -7. -7. -9. -11. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 6. 4. -3. -19. -38. -55. -71. -80. -90.-101.-113. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102015 HILDA 08/08/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 30.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102015 HILDA 08/08/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##