* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP102015 08/09/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 117 116 110 105 87 69 52 40 30 21 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 115 117 116 110 105 87 69 52 40 30 21 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 115 115 110 103 96 82 68 56 45 37 30 24 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 1 0 2 5 18 22 27 35 47 47 51 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 1 -2 0 1 2 4 6 4 -3 -1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 21 300 234 281 247 254 258 255 251 258 256 265 262 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 146 143 141 140 137 136 133 133 132 132 132 132 132 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.7 -51.1 -51.2 -50.7 -51.4 -51.2 -52.0 -52.2 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 62 61 60 58 60 64 63 59 55 55 51 50 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 19 17 19 18 17 16 15 14 14 12 9 850 MB ENV VOR 32 49 44 46 32 31 23 18 29 20 17 11 6 200 MB DIV 57 46 38 37 60 73 76 55 44 25 15 1 -19 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 2 7 14 10 9 6 3 1 4 LAND (KM) 1307 1193 1079 984 890 720 601 501 423 367 328 283 212 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.4 14.8 15.3 15.7 16.6 17.5 18.3 19.0 19.7 20.4 20.7 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 144.0 145.0 145.9 146.7 147.4 148.7 149.5 150.2 150.8 151.3 151.8 152.4 153.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 4 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 31 21 19 19 23 34 23 22 21 17 15 15 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -10. -17. -26. -33. -40. -46. -50. -53. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -18. -24. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 5. 8. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -13. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 1. -5. -10. -28. -46. -63. -75. -85. -94.-105.-115. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102015 HILDA 08/09/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102015 HILDA 08/09/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##