* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932015 08/09/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 23 24 23 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 23 24 23 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 20 19 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 13 14 14 13 20 26 25 21 21 17 22 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -5 -4 -3 -3 -3 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 333 328 334 342 349 347 354 342 338 331 299 302 303 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.4 26.1 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 144 142 140 138 138 135 132 130 126 123 122 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -53.0 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 64 60 57 54 53 51 48 46 42 46 44 45 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 1 2 2 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR -49 -53 -63 -64 -57 -42 -39 -38 -44 -36 -41 -43 -43 200 MB DIV -1 -11 -4 -9 -17 -29 -29 -31 -62 -59 -23 -2 0 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 -1 0 -1 1 2 2 1 0 0 2 LAND (KM) 1536 1577 1619 1665 1704 1788 1859 1931 1990 2061 2146 2053 1873 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.8 16.0 16.3 16.5 16.8 17.4 17.9 18.3 18.7 19.1 19.4 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 123.3 124.0 124.7 125.5 126.2 127.7 129.2 130.5 131.5 132.6 133.8 135.2 136.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 6 6 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 29 22 16 10 7 9 13 8 5 5 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932015 INVEST 08/09/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932015 INVEST 08/09/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##