* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP102015 08/09/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 112 110 107 101 86 67 51 41 28 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 115 112 110 107 101 86 67 51 41 28 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 115 109 103 97 90 76 63 52 42 34 27 22 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 0 3 12 24 29 35 41 44 44 50 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 0 1 0 0 4 1 1 0 0 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 327 343 4 244 246 259 254 249 244 253 250 262 259 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 140 138 137 134 133 132 132 132 132 132 132 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.2 -51.2 -50.7 -51.0 -51.6 -51.6 -52.5 -52.6 -53.1 -53.0 -53.6 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 63 60 61 60 63 63 60 58 58 58 59 58 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 19 19 18 18 15 14 15 13 11 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 43 37 39 27 29 24 12 11 21 10 13 9 11 200 MB DIV 51 55 49 60 64 70 71 53 33 29 5 8 11 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 1 4 7 10 8 3 3 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 1182 1076 970 877 784 619 518 445 398 351 309 262 235 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.7 15.1 15.6 16.1 17.1 18.1 18.9 19.6 20.1 20.4 20.8 21.3 LONG(DEG W) 145.1 146.0 146.9 147.6 148.3 149.5 150.1 150.6 151.0 151.5 152.0 152.7 153.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 8 7 5 5 4 3 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 21 20 21 26 36 25 22 21 17 15 16 16 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -18. -26. -34. -41. -46. -51. -54. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. -3. -7. -11. -14. -17. -22. -28. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -7. -5. -9. -11. -14. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -8. -14. -29. -48. -64. -74. -87. -98.-109.-117. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102015 HILDA 08/09/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102015 HILDA 08/09/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##